Impact assessment of a raw coal ban on maternal and child health outcomes in Ulaanbaatar: a protocol for an interrupted time series study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite a decade of policy actions, Ulaanbaatar's residents continue to be exposed to extreme levels of air pollution, a major public health concern, especially for vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and children. In May 2019, the Mongolian government implemented a raw coal ban (RCB), prohibiting distribution and use of raw coal in households and small businesses in Ulaanbaatar. Here, we present the protocol for an interrupted time series (ITS; a strong quasi-experimental study design for public health interventions) that aims to assess the effectiveness of this coal ban policy on environmental (air quality) and health (maternal and child) outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Routinely collected data on pregnancy and child respiratory health outcomes between 2016 and 2022 in Ulaanbaatar will be collected retrospectively from the four main hospitals providing maternal and/or paediatric care as well as the National Statistics Office. Hospital admissions data for childhood diarrhoea, an unrelated outcome to air pollution exposure, will be collected to control for unknown or unmeasured coinciding events. Retrospective air pollution data will be collected from the district weather stations and the US Embassy. An ITS analysis will be conducted to determine the RCB intervention impact on these outcomes. Prior to the ITS, we have proposed an impact model based on a framework of five key factors, which were identified through literature search and qualitative research to potentially influence the intervention impact assessment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained via the Ministry of Health, Mongolia (No.445) and University of Birmingham (ERN_21-1403). To inform relevant stakeholders of our findings, key results will be disseminated on both (inter)national and population levels through publications, scientific conferences and community briefings. These findings are aimed to provide evidence for decision-making in coal pollution mitigation strategies in Mongolia and similar settings throughout the world.

Persistence of social isolation and mortality: 10-year follow-up of the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort study.

Although social isolation has been associated with higher mortality risk, the associations of persistence of social isolation with mortality are unclear. We investigated the prospective associations of intermittent and persistent social isolation with all-cause and cause-specific mortality, considering the social contact types (face-to-face and non-face-to-face). 30,518 participants were recruited in 2003-2008 initially and 18,104 participants with re-assessed social isolation information in 2008-2012 were followed up to Dec 2019 in Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS). During an average of 9.7 years of follow-up, 2,119 deaths occurred. The isolation at baseline survey, isolation at second survey and persistent isolation were positively associated with all-cause mortality in the minimal adjusted model (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) =1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.38, 1.11, 1.00-1.23 and 1.23, 1.05-1.43, respectively). Totally 47.2% of the risk was explained by health status, SEP, and biological, behavioural and psychological factors. Persistent isolation from face-to-face with co-inhabitants, versus no isolation, was associated with higher risks of all-cause (HR=1.40, 1.09-1.81) and CVD (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR)=1.92, 1.31-2.81) mortality in fully adjusted model. Our study showed that intermittent and persistent isolation were generally associated with higher risks of mortality, and the risks were even higher in those with persistent face-to-face isolation with co-inhabitants.

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in Northern Sri Lanka: a study protocol for a cross-sectional household survey.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia globally. It is associated with a fivefold risk in stroke, but early diagnosis and effective treatment can reduce this risk. AF is often underdiagnosed, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) where screening for AF is not always feasible or considered common practice in primary care settings. Epidemiological data on AF in LMICs is often incomplete particularly in vulnerable populations. This LMIC research collaborative aims to identify the prevalence of AF in the Northern Sri Lankan community. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cross-sectional household survey piloted and codesigned through a series of community engagement events will be administered in all five districts in Northern Province, Sri Lanka. A multistage cluster sampling approach will be used starting at district level, then the Divisional Secretariats followed by Grama Niladhari divisions. Twenty households will be selected from each cluster. The study aims to recruit 10 000 participants aged 50 years or older, 1 participant per household. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, well-being and lifestyle and anthropometric measurements will be collected using a digital data platform (REDCap, Research Electronic Data Capture) by trained data collectors. Participants will be screened for AF using a fingertip single-lead ECG via a smartphone application (AliveCor) with rhythm strips reviewed by a consultant cardiologist. Prevalence of AF and risk factors will be established at province and district-levels. Adjusted ORs and population attributable fractions for AF risk factors will be determined. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Ethics Review Committee of Faculty of Medicine at University of Jaffna. Written informed consent will be obtained from all participants. Findings will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presentations at conferences. The findings will enable early treatment for new AF diagnoses and inform interventions to improve community-based management of AF in LMICs.

Association of Hand Grip Strength with Mild Cognitive Impairment in Middle-Aged and Older People in Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

Background: Lower hand grip strength has been linked to cognitive impairment, but studies in older Chinese are limited. We examined the association of hand grip strength with cognitive function in a large sample of older Chinese. Methods: 6806 participants aged 50+ years from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS) were included. Relative grip strength was calculated by absolute handgrip strength divided by the body mass index (BMI). Cognitive function was assessed using the Delayed Word Recall Test (DWRT, from 0 to 10) and the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE, from 0 to 30), with higher scores indicating better cognition. Results: After adjusting for multiple potential confounders, lower absolute grip strength and relative grip strength were significantly associated with lower DWRT (all p < 0.05) in all participants. No significant interaction effects between sex and handgrip strength on cognitive impairment were found (p from 0.27 to 0.87). No significant association between handgrip strength and total MMSE scores was found in the total sample or by sex (p from 0.06 to 0.50). Regarding the individual components of MMSE, lower absolute and relative grip strength were significantly associated with lower scores of the recall memory performance in all participants (p from 0.003 to 0.04). Conclusion: We have shown for the first time a positive association of grip strength with recall memory performance, but not general cognitive function in older people, which warrants further investigation.

Investigating Cooking Activity Patterns and Perceptions of Air Quality Interventions among Women in Urban Rwanda.

Household air pollution (HAP) from biomass cooking with traditional stoves is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) worldwide. Air quality interventions such as improved cookstoves (ICS) may mitigate HAP-related impacts; however, poor understanding of contextual socio-cultural factors such as local cooking practices have limited their widespread adoption. Policymakers and stakeholders require an understanding of local cooking practices to inform effective HAP interventions which meet end-user needs. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 36 women residing in biomass-cooking fuel households in Kigali, Rwanda to identify cooking activity patterns, awareness of HAP-related health risks and ICS intervention preferences. Overall, 94% of respondents exclusively used charcoal cooking fuel and 53% cooked one meal each day (range = 1-3 meals). Women were significantly more likely to cook outdoors compared to indoors (64% vs. 36%; p < 0.05). Over half of respondents (53%) were unaware of HAP-related health risks and 64% had no prior awareness of ICS. Participants expressed preferences for stove mobility (89%) and facility for multiple pans (53%) within an ICS intervention. Our findings highlight the need for HAP interventions to be flexible to suit a range of cooking patterns and preferred features for end-users in this context.

Early policy actions and emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia: experiences and challenges.

Country-led control measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, have been diverse. Originating in Wuhan, China, in December, 2019, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020. In recognition of the severity of the outbreak, and having the longest shared border with China, the Government of Mongolia activated the State Emergency Committee in January, 2020, on the basis of the 2017 Disaster Protection Law. As a result, various public health measures have been taken that led to delaying the first confirmed case of COVID-19 until March 10, 2020, and with no intensive care admissions or deaths until July 6, 2020. These measures included promoting universal personal protection and preventions, such as the use of face masks and handwashing, restricting international travel, suspending all training and educational activities from kindergartens to universities, and banning major public gatherings such as the celebration of the national New Year holiday. These measures have been accompanied by active infection surveillance and self-isolation recommendations. The Mongolian case shows that with robust preventive systems, an effective response to a pandemic can be mounted in a low-income or middle-income country. We hereby examine the emergency preparedness experience, effectiveness, and challenges of the early outbreak policies on COVID-19 prevention in Mongolia, as well as any unintended consequences.

Effects of tea consumption on renal function in a metropolitan Chinese population: the Guangzhou biobank cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Green tea consumption has been associated with many prophylactic health benefits. This study examined for the first time associations between tea consumption and renal function in a Chinese population. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional baseline data including demographics, and lifestyle and weekly consumption of green, black, and oolong tea were analyzed from 12,428 ambulatory subjects aged 50 to 85 years (67.3% female) that were randomly selected from the membership list of a community social and welfare association in Guangzhou, China. INTERVENTION: Associations between tea consumption and renal function were assessed using regression analyses to adjust for potential confounding factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Renal function was assessed using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and in a subcohort of 1,910 participants using a spot urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio. RESULTS: Six thousand eight hundred and seventy-two participants drank at least 1 type of tea. Oolong tea consumption was negatively associated with eGFR (ß-coefficient -0.019, P = .025), but in a gender-stratified analysis this was not the case. In men, black tea was positively associated with eGFR (ß-coefficient 0.037, P = .013), but not in women (ß-coefficient -0.002, P = .856). Otherwise, no statistically significant consistent associations between the measures of renal function and consumption of green tea, black tea, or oolong tea individually or total tea consumption were identified. CONCLUSION: Overall there was no clear evidence to suggest any consistent association between renal function and tea consumption in this large population-based study of older Chinese individuals.

A single nucleotide polymorphism of interleukin-6 gene is related to plasma adrenomedullin levels.

OBJECTIVE: Elevated plasma adrenomedullin (ADM) levels are associated with cardiovascular diseases. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the gene encoding ADM (ADM) are associated with plasma ADM levels. The presence of a nuclear factor for interleukin-6 (IL-6) expression binding site in the promoter region of the ADM gene suggests a possible relationship between the expression of the ADM and IL-6. Therefore, we investigated whether plasma ADM levels are related to SNPs in the gene encoding IL-6 (IL6). METHODS: Plasma ADM levels were measured in 476 subjects in the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study-2 (CRISPS2). The subjects were genotyped for three tagging SNPs in the IL6 gene. RESULTS: The minor allele frequencies of the IL6 SNPs rs17147230, rs1800796 and rs2069837 were 41·8%, 20·0% and 15·4%, respectively. The tagging SNP, rs17147230, was associated with plasma ADM levels after adjusting for age and sex (ß=-0·096, P = 0·034). The association was significant in women (ß=-0·115, P = 0·021) but not in men. Among all subjects, plasma ADM levels decreased with an increasing number of minor alleles of rs17147230 in multivariate analysis (P = 0·034). Compared to subjects with the AA genotype, subjects with the TT genotype had plasma ADM levels 12·8% lower (95% CI: 0·6-23·5%, P = 0·041). Haplotype analysis demonstrated a significant association of the haplotype ACA with plasma ADM levels in women (P < 0·05). CONCLUSION: Plasma ADM levels are related to the SNP rs17147230 in IL6 gene. The effect of the polymorphism on inflammation and cardiovascular disease remains to be determined.

Study of the effects of total flavonoids of Astragalus on atherosclerosis formation and potential mechanisms.

Astragalus mongholicus Bunge has long been used to treat cardiovascular disease in Chinese traditional medicine. However, its mechanisms are not fully understood. In this study, we explored potential mechanisms and protective effects of total flavonoids of Astragalus (TFA) on cardiovascular disease using in vitro experiments and diet-induced atherosclerotic rabbits. We identified six components and their proportion in TFA. The animal experiments showed that TFA significantly reduced plasma levels of total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol (P < 0.05 to 0.01), increased HDL cholesterol levels (P < 0.01), and reduced the aortic fatty streak area by 43.6 to 63.6% (P < 0.01). We also found that TFA scavenged superoxide and hydroxyl radicals and this effect increased with higher TFA concentration. In in vivo experiments, TFA effectively inhibited the free radical spectrum in the ischemia-reperfusion module. In conclusion, TFA was the active component of Astragalus mongholicus Bunge, which benefits cardiovascular disease attributing to the potent antioxidant activity to improve the atherosclerosis profile.

Association of a genetic variant in the apolipoprotein A5 gene with the metabolic syndrome in Chinese.

OBJECTIVE: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the apolipoprotein A5 gene (APOA5) are associated with hypertriglyceridaemia in our population. We studied the associations of SNPs in APOA5 with the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the Hong Kong and Guangzhou Chinese. METHODS: We genotyped five tagging SNPs in 1330 unrelated subjects from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study cohort with follow-up after a median interval of 6·4 years; 1952 subjects from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study-Cardiovascular Disease Subcohort were used to replicate the findings. The MetS was defined according to the consensus criteria proposed jointly by several organizations in 2009. RESULTS: The SNP rs662799 (-1131T>C) was associated with the MetS (odds ratio = 1·47, P = 0·00082) and the number of its components present (regression coefficient = 0·204, P = 4·6 × 10(-5) ) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, drinking and education in Hong Kong subjects at baseline. Similar association of this SNP was found in Hong Kong subjects at follow-up (P = 0·010 and 0·00021, respectively) and in Guangzhou subjects (P = 0·0041 and 0·017, respectively). The association of rs662799 with the number of the MetS components was significant regardless of age, sex, obesity and alcohol drinking, but almost disappeared after further adjusting for plasma triglycerides. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that the -1131T>C polymorphism in APOA5 was associated with the MetS because of its strong effect on plasma triglycerides. This may partly explain the higher cardiovascular risk in people with this polymorphism.

[Polymorphisms of vascular diseases-related genes in Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study].

OBJECTIVE: To study the polymorphisms of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular disease genes using Taqman single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping kits. METHODS: A total of 2000 subjects were recruited from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS), and 15 SNPs were detected using Taqman SNP genotyping kits and an ABI 7900HT real time PCR system. The data were tested for the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and then compared with the data of the Chinese population from the International HapMap Project (HapMap_HCN). RESULTS: (1) All genotype data of the 15 SNPs were consistent with the Hardy-Weinberg rules. (2) The significant differences were observed among two SNPs, rs4220 and rs5368 and the HapMap_HCN (rs4220 28.2% vs 17.8%; chi(2) = 4.891, P = 0.028; rs5368 22.1% vs 32.2%, chi(2) = 5.137, P = 0.024). Comparing other gene bank data, such as AFD-CHN-PANEL, the Allele Frequency Database (ALFRED) and JBIC-allele, it would be most likely that our observations represent differences between the Northern and Southern populations in China. CONCLUSION: Such Biobank study provided a useful platform for the study of the role of genetic and environmental determinants on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular disease.

Part 4. Interaction between air pollution and respiratory viruses: time-series study of daily mortality and hospital admissions in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Populations in Asia are not only at risk of harm to their health through environmental degradation as a result of worsening pollution problems but also constantly threatened by recurring and emerging influenza epidemics and. pandemics. Situated in the area with the world's fastest growing economy and close to hypothetical epicenters of influenza transmission, Hong Kong offers a special opportunity for testing environmental management and public health surveillance in the region. In the Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA*) project, the Hong Kong research team assessed the health effects of air pollution and influenza as well as the interaction between them. The team also assessed disparities in the health effects of air pollution between relatively deprived and more affluent areas in Hong Kong. The aim was to provide answers to outstanding research questions relating to the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality and hospital admissions; the health effects of influenza with a view to validating different measures of influenza activity according to virologic data; the confounding effects of influenza on estimates of the health effects of air pollution; the modifying effects of influenza on the health effects of air pollution; and the modifying effects of neighborhood social deprivation on the health effects of air pollution. DATA: Data on mortality and hospital admissions for all natural causes, as well as the subcategories of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD), were derived from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department and the Hospital Authority. Daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 pm (PM10); and ozone (O3) were derived from eight monitoring stations with hourly data that were at least 75% complete during the study period. Three measures of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were derived from positive isolates of specimens in the virology laboratory of Queen Mary Hospital (QMH), the main clinical teaching center at The University of Hong Kong and part of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority network of teaching hospitals: influenza intensity (defined as the weekly proportion of positive isolates of influenza in the total number of specimens received for diagnostic tests); the presence of influenza epidemic (defined as a period when the weekly frequency of these positive isolates is > or = 4% of the annual total number of positive isolates [i.e., twice the expected mean value] in two or more consecutive weeks); and influenza predominance (defined as a period of influenza epidemic when the weekly frequency of RSV was less than 2% for two or more consecutive weeks). The weekly proportion of positive isolates of RSV in total specimens was determined in the same way as for influenza intensity. A social deprivation index (SDI) was defined by taking the average of the proportions of households or persons with the following six characteristics in each geographic area using the census statistics: unemployment; household income < U.S. $250 per month; no schooling at all; never-married status; one-person household; and subtenancy. A Poisson regression with quasi-likelihood to account for overdispersion was used to develop core models for daily health outcomes, with a natural spline smoothing function to filter out seasonal patterns and long-term trends in this time-series study of daily mortality and hospital admissions, and with adjustment for days of the week, temperature, and relative humidity (RH). Air pollutant concentration values were entered into the core model to assess the health effects of specific pollutants. The possible confounding effects of influenza were assessed by observing changes in magnitude of the effect estimate when each influenza measurement was entered into the model; and interactions between air pollution and influenza were assessed by entering the terms for the product of the air pollutant concentration and a measurement of influenza activity into the model. A Poisson regression analysis was performed to assess the effects of air pollution in each area belonging to low, middle, or high social deprivation strata according to the tertiles of the SDI. The differences in air pollution effects were tested by a case-only approach. RESULTS The excess risk (ER) estimates for the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality and hospitalization for broad categories of disease were greater in those 65 years and older than in the all-ages group and were consistent with other studies. The biggest health impacts were seen at the extremes of the age range. The three measures employed for influenza activity based on virologic data-one based on a proportion and the other two using frequencies of positive influenza isolates-were found to produce consistent health impact estimates, in terms of statistical significance. In general, we found that adjustment for influenza activity in air pollution health effect estimations took account of relatively small confounding effects. However, we conclude that it is worthwhile to make the adjustment in a sensitivity analysis and to obtain the best possible range of effect estimates from the data, especially for respiratory hospitalization. Interestingly, interaction effects were found between influenza activity and air pollution in the estimated risks for hospitalization for RD, particularly for 03. These results could be explained in terms of the detrimental effects of both influenza viruses and air pollutants, which may be synergistic or competing with each other, though the mechanism is still unknown. The results deserve further study and the attention of both public health policy makers and virologists in considering prevention strategies. IMPLICATIONS In Hong Kong, where air pollution may pose more of a health threat than in North American and Western European cities, the effects of air pollution also interact with influenza and with residence in socially deprived areas, potentially leading to additional harm. Asian governments should be aware of the combined risks to the health of the population when considering environmental protection and management in the context of economic, urban, and infrastructure development. This is the first study in Asia to examine the interactions between air pollution, influenza, and social deprivation from an epidemiologic perspective. The biologic mechanisms are still unclear, and further research is needed.

The effects of air pollution on mortality in socially deprived urban areas in Hong Kong, China.

BACKGROUND: Poverty is a major determinant of population health, but little is known about its role in modifying air pollution effects. OBJECTIVES: We set out to examine whether people residing in socially deprived communities are at higher mortality risk from ambient air pollution. METHODS: This study included 209 tertiary planning units (TPUs), the smallest units for town planning in the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong, China. The socioeconomic status of each TPU was measured by a social deprivation index (SDI) derived from the proportions of the population with a) unemployment, b) monthly household income < US$250, c) no schooling at all, d) one-person household, e) never-married status, and f ) subtenancy, from the 2001 Population Census. TPUs were classified into three levels of SDI: low, middle, and high. We performed time-series analysis with Poisson regression to examine the association between changes in daily concentrations of ambient air pollution and daily number of deaths in each SDI group for the period from January 1996 to December 2002. We evaluated the differences in pollution effects between different SDI groups using a case-only approach with logistic regression. RESULTS: We found significant associations of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 mum, and ozone with all nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality in areas of middle or high SDI (p < 0.05). Health outcomes, measured as all nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, in people residing in high SDI areas were more strongly associated with SO(2) and NO(2) compared with those in middle or low SDI areas. CONCLUSIONS: Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation increases mortality risks associated with air pollution.